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What happened to transpacific rates into Golden Week
Transpacific rates into Golden Week moved in two directions. Drewry’s World Container Index for Oct. 1 held Shanghai to Los Angeles at $7,835 per 40-ft container and moved Shanghai to New York up 1% to $10,428, while the composite index slipped 1% to $4,434. Drewry links the softer composite to China’s Golden Week and to falling Asia-Europe rates. Carriers are still trimming capacity: Drewry counts 10 blank sailings announced for next week, down from 13 the week before, and says carriers are trying to raise FAK rates after the holiday. On the demand side, the NRF and Hackett Associates Global Port Tracker projected September U.S. imports at 2.31 million TEU, which would make it the busiest month of 2026 so far. “We thought the peak season would be mostly behind us by now, but that’s not the case,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy.
Transpacific rates by the numbers
| Indicator | Value | What it tells a U.S. importer |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai to Los Angeles (WCI) | $7,835 per 40-ft, flat | West Coast spot pricing has stopped climbing for now |
| Shanghai to New York (WCI) | $10,428 per 40-ft, +1% | East Coast all-water still carries a premium of $2,593 per box (33.1% over LA) |
| Blank sailings, next week (Drewry) | 10, down from 13 | Carriers are still cutting loops to hold rates |
| September imports (NRF forecast) | 2.31M TEU, +9.6% y/y | Peak season ran later than planned |
| October imports (NRF forecast) | 2.11M TEU, +1.7% y/y | Volume eases about 8.7% from September |
The New York premium and the September-to-October drop are our calculations from the published figures ($10,428 minus $7,835; 2.11M versus 2.31M TEU).
What Golden Week means for your shipment
Two forces pull in opposite directions. Lower October volume argues for softer rates once factories reopen. Blank sailings and announced FAK increases argue that carriers will try to hold or lift pricing after the holiday. For most importers the question is not the headline rate but the cost per unit and the risk of a rate move between now and gate-in.
Worked example (index-based estimate, not an ExFreight quote)
Assume a 40-ft container loaded with 1,100 cartons from Shanghai.
- Los Angeles: $7,835 / 1,100 = $7.12 per carton
- New York: $10,428 / 1,100 = $9.48 per carton
- If post-holiday rates rose 10% (hypothetical): LA $7,835 x 1.10 = $8,618.50, or +$0.71 per carton; New York $10,428 x 1.10 = $11,470.80, or +$0.95 per carton
- If rates fell 10% (hypothetical): LA $7,051.50, or -$0.71 per carton; New York $9,385.20, or -$0.95 per carton
A 10% swing either way moves landed cost by less than one dollar per carton in this example. Waiting only pays if your margin is thin and your inventory can absorb a late arrival.
How to time transpacific bookings around Golden Week
- Price October and November cargo per unit, not per box, before deciding to wait.
- Confirm with your supplier which Golden Week cargo will be ready at the factory reopening, so you book space for what actually ships.
- Compare West Coast and East Coast delivery on a door-to-door basis; the $2,593 index premium can shrink or grow once inland trucking is added.
- If the order is small, check whether LCL consolidation makes more sense than a full 40-ft box at current rates.
- Keep a fallback for urgent SKUs; a partial move by air freight can protect a launch date while the bulk travels by ocean.
For background on how carriers set these numbers, see our guide to ocean freight rates and how capacity constraints move freight rates. Index figures are benchmarks; the freight rate API guide explains how they differ from bookable rates.
How ExFreight can help
ExFreight’s platform returns instant door-to-door rates with transit times and carrier options, so you can compare routings side by side. Quotes are informational and subject to change; shipments can be re-invoiced if actual details differ.
Sources
This guide explains market and regulatory changes for shippers. It is not customs, legal or financial advice. Rates quoted are third-party index values, not ExFreight prices.
Frequently asked questions
Do ocean rates usually fall during Golden Week?
Cargo volume drops while Chinese factories close, which can soften spot rates. Carriers respond with blank sailings and post-holiday rate increases, so any dip may be short. Drewry's Oct. 1 index showed Shanghai to Los Angeles flat and Shanghai to New York up 1%.
Is it cheaper to ship from China to the East Coast via Los Angeles?
On ocean rates alone, yes: Drewry's Oct. 1 index shows Los Angeles $2,593 per 40-ft container below New York. The full answer depends on inland trucking cost from the West Coast to your facility and the transit time you can accept.
